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Do You feel Lucky?

Do You Feel Lucky?

 


Anthony Wood of Samuel Wood & Co comments on the property market as the autumn market approaches.

Some people are naturally gifted with clothes or plants or DIY or cooking.  Others are less so.  Some people are really good at buying and selling property.  The process seems easy to them.  But others can find it stressful, difficult and emotional, and they hardly enjoy the process.

Its understandable to think that an estate agent's job is simply to find a buyer and that is it, job done.  But in truth the role is as much about project management as sales.  Finding someone who says they want to buy your property is a far cry from their being able to buy your property.  Then there is chain management - several house sales and purchases may all be interdependent.  Here a lot can go wrong.  Most properties need surveys, many need mortgages and all will be subject to the emotional rollercoaster of property transactions that may, in the end, rest on a group of strangers all behaving well and sensibly towards each other.

A few brave souls would happily build a new house without the services of a project manager to bring together all the professionals, tradespeople and suppliers that are inevitably involved.  But most people wouldn't dream of being without one.  Property sale and purchase is the same.  Doing it yourself or getting the service on the cheap could save you a bit and work out reasonably well - if you remain focused, detached, flexible, reasonable, compassionate, completely understanding of your fellow man and have some luck.

But if you have little time, little relevant experience, little patience, don't wish to gamble on luck and lack that natural gift for coolly buying and selling hugely important and valuable items of personal importance, it may be better to leave it up to an experienced and talented project manager to bring it all together.  Successful house sales and purchases don't usually happen all by themselves.  They happen because skilful, experienced, patient and tactful people behind the scenes make them happen.

An estate agent might be expected to say this, but time and again it proves to be true.  Valuable and important items like fine art or wine, stocks and shares, cars, yachts or land and houses are often best sold through a third party - and the better the third party the better.

So if you are intending to sell your house this autumn, don't compromise.  Insist on the best sales and project manager you can get.  It is the sure way you will get the best result.  Or do you feel lucky?

 

Date: 3/08/2010

A Game of Two Halves

A Game of Two Halves

 

Anthony Wood of Samuel Wood & Co comments on the property market after a busy Spring.

What a game!  The English have long been used to the highs and especially the lows of their national obsession.

All the early hype leads to such lofty expectations.  It is only later that frustration and disappointment invariably sets in.

The media and pundits don?t really help.  The public are led to think nothing can go amiss.  But then one careless move and all is undone and we stare defeat in the face.

Yes, the property market is a funny old game; and boom and bust certainly make it one of two halves.  It?s a bit like football.  Witnessing our new coalition government possibly let the slowly improving property market slip through its fingers was rather like seeing the England goalie spill the ball and watching it inexorably, and with agonisingly slow but inevitable progress, roll through the gaping and unguarded stanchions.  Excruciating.

The pre-election hype was all there as usual ? what would be done to build up the property market if the Tory team got through ? and the Tory team did get through, but only on goal difference.  Post election, an early score from the home team in stopping Home Information Packs put them on the road to victory.  But then came the Budget.  Putting a hefty increase on Capital Gains Tax could have been a tournament-losing goalmouth blunder.

Many people searching for property right now are, by necessity, cash buyers - others are finding it a challenge to secure a mortgage.  Had a very high rate of CGT been imposed investors would have had to think much more carefully about second homes or buy-to-let properties.  But the Government have largely avoided a damaging own goal through a more modest increase.  Now they need to get lenders to release more money to first time buyers.  This would be a spectacular counter attack and would get us all right back in the game.

Let us hope that this new manager, Cameron, can get his players to keep to the game plan and that our forwards, Osborne, Alexander, Cable and Shapps all play a blinder.  Most of all let?s hope no-one breaks anything - like the bank!  Or that they all play beneath their potential - like another team we could mention!

Date: 1/07/2010

Running on Empty

Anthony Wood of Samuel Wood & Co sees more buyers returning to the property market but knows that many more would join them if they could secure a mortgage.

A property industry without mortgage funds is about as useless as a motor industry without fuel at the pumps.

At our recent extensive round of Mayfair national property forums an extraordinary picture unfolded.  Many of our colleagues across the country reported greatly increased levels of property transactions, but in up to ninety per cent of cases, these were funded by cash buyers.

The banks are still hoarding money - our money!  Messrs Osborne and Cable must get a firm grip on this problem.  Scrapping Home Information Packs can help the market but not if lenders won't lend.  Together with the new Housing Minister, Grant Shapps, they must somehow stop this logjam and allow eager first time buyers the funds they need to climb onto the housing ladder without continuing to apply crippling lending criteria.

Releasing funds will stimulate the rest of the market and allied industries.  Our property market won't heal itself.  It either needs government intervention or enlightened banks and building societies - preferably both.  It is essential to get mortgage funds pumping again.

Date: 1/06/2010

Moving for Schooling

Moving For Schooling

 

 

Anthony Wood of Samuel Wood & Co comments on an increasingly important factor in the property market.

Forget about April showers, in the property market it's the brainy season.  In homes across the nation students are gearing up for important examinations. But further down the education time line parents of younger children are also being put to the test.  Whether one agrees with the schools' selection system or not, today a postcode can have as much to do with where a child attends primary or secondary school as their academic potential.

Whilst parents may not always be able to influence their offspring's ability as much as they would like, they certainly can influence where their child is educated.  Moving to a favoured school's catchment area can certainly increase a child's chances of getting a place at that school.  But there are some important steps to take before making the move.

It is essential to check with the local education authority about their criteria for placement before making any major decisions.  Then it's best to speak to a chosen school and ask them the same question.  Once confident that the school of choice will have availability then moving home may very well be worth doing.

Applying in plenty of time for a place is very important so this is the time of year that anxious parents consider a location that promises the best education for their child.  After all, selling an existing property and buying a new one does take time.

But it is not just the primary and secondary sector that is testing parents right now.  Those with offspring going to university also have some important homework to do.  Student accommodation is expensive and for parents who intend to purchase a flat or small house, both for investment and accommodation purposes, now is the time to be looking. City centre flat prices are just about as low as they go right now and this is a great time to get into the market.  

Whatever the requirements for a child's education the sensible move is to talk to a good local estate agent - perhaps one of parental age who has lived in the area for some time.  He or she will be able to give a huge amount of useful information about neighbourhoods, security, transport, lifestyle and, of course, housing.

In the meantime if you have particularly strong feelings about the state schools' selection system or about university fees, loans and grants very soon there is an ideal opportunity to have your say in the government's very own examination room - the polling station!


Date: 1/04/2010

Let the waiting games begin.

Let The Waiting Games Begin



Anthony Wood of Samuel Wood & Company comments on a period of stagnation in the property market.

Putting off moving until after the summer holidays or waiting until after Christmas are the usual causes of home buying inertia.  But now we have lots more reasons to put off the evil day.  First there is the General Election.  The World Cup in South Africa will quickly follow in June.  Quite how differing outcomes of these events will affect the market is hard to fathom.

A brief period of euphoria may sweep the nation should England win the Jules Rimet Trophy but this is hardly going to kick-start a housing boom or usher in a slump.  Likewise there will be few surprises, no matter who wins the election.  Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Green, UKip or even the Monster Raving Loony Party! it is hard to see how any new government will not oversee a rise in interest rates, income tax and even VAT to claw back our crushing £101 billion deficit.

So if we know we are in for a tough few years of readjustment - no matter who wins the World Cup or General Election - perhaps the prudent thing to do would be to act now.  For those who anticipate financial difficulty, downsizing and lowering the mortgage might be a sensible option.  Others may wish to go eco-friendly ahead of inevitable rising energy prices.  Still more may wish to release funds ahead of the increasing cost of their children's educations.

For those who see this time as one of golden opportunities there are certainly some of those.  Our lowest interest rates for hundreds of years make stepping up in the market or even getting onto the first rung of the property-owning ladder easier now than for a long time, just as long as funds are available.

But despite the opportunities offered by this market there will still be those happy to put things off: and of course there are plenty of other events coming up in the months ahead to help them stave off moving day.  Later this year there's the Commonwealth Games in Delhi and the G20 meeting in Seoul.  Or for those who want to wait for the big one, what about the London Olympics in 2012?

But really, the best time to move is when our own lives dictate that it is right to do so, rather than waiting on the outcomes of national or world events.  Currently there is a dearth of property on the market because so many people are waiting in vain.  This is even causing prices to rise in some areas and bringing uncertainty in others.

However one thing is very certain: as far as the property market is concerned, waiting isn't working.

Date: 4/03/2010

Events

Events

Anthony Wood of Samuel Wood & Co looks into the options presented by the property market this autumn.

Harold Macmillan famously said that the greatest obstacle to political achievement was, "Events, dear boy, events".  He may well have been speaking about the greatest obstacle to stability in the property market.

Whilst the political classes reflect on the events of last year, and indeed on an annus horribilis, the property classes look back at 2009 with a more benevolent view.  Unlike 2008, the property market has performed reasonably well - considering what might have been.  At a time when our MPs struggled with the aftermath of duck house construction, moat clearing and bell tower maintenance, and made into an art form the cynical habit of second home flipping (an advantage not generally exploited by those more scrupulous second home owners who have earned this benefit rather than had it given to them by the tax payer) the property market rallied to a reasonable extent in some areas and to a remarkable extent in others.

Prices in some regions have returned to their pre 2007 levels.  This was not anticipated, but then nor were the numbers of properties coming onto - or rather not coming onto - the market.  This alone has kept prices buoyant despite a real worry about rising unemployment and the prevailing dearth of mortgage funds.

In a year dominated by political scandal and shame, almost weekly reminders of the awful and tragic reality of war, rising concerns about rising sea levels, desperation in Dubai and yet more stories of banking incompetence and greed, the property market was one area that was quietly left alone by the headline writers who had other fish to fry.

Over the year we also loved to read the nonsense spouted by some industry 'experts' and armchair generals, all anxious to grab a headline or two for themselves.  Some predicted that property values would drop, some that values would rise and some that values would stay the same.  Some even managed to predict all three in the same sentence!

But despite the lack of any lead from the press the mood in the property sector seems to have changed and is changing still.  Buyers appear to be altering their spending habits.  Overt demonstrations of wealth and signs of conspicuous consumption appear to be on the wane.  Modesty seems back in vogue.  Value is the key to a new home.  Whilst not perhaps behaving with sackcloth-and-ashes remorse, buyers seem to be showing more restraint than in past years.  The bonus boys and girls have more things on their minds than the purchase of a palace to house their collections of expensive toys and gadgets - the threatened one-off bonus tax and higher rate income tax have seen to that.

Reviewing events of the past year is easy, but anticipating the next is more of a challenge.  A general election always adds some turbulence to the market and the coming vote should be no exception.  If the Tories get in we are told that we can expect the demise of HIPs - a badly conceived and woefully executed piece of legislation, even if the initial intent was a worthy one.  If Labour wins we can probably expect the tenth housing minister since the party came to power twelve years ago - not perhaps the most ringing endorsement of a strong commitment to the housing sector that some would wish for, or indeed expect.

Despite long awaited signs of improving access to mortgage funds there is still the threat of a double dip in the property market if the economy does not continue to improve.  Also of concern is a sudden glut of available property on the market that could yet stall recovery.  However, many would argue that we have lived under this shadow for over a year and Armageddon hasn?t happened yet.

Many in the industry will also be looking closely at the property portals - where the vast majority of homebuyers now begin window-shopping. These people could be in for an exciting year.  For those intrigued by this unfolding drama it is a fascinating prospect.  Will the UK industry giant, Rightmove, be sidelined by the global internet giant Google?  The latter plans a mega property search engine which could offer the property industry here the tantalising prospect of saving millions of pounds in resented expenditure?  Could the way the public search for property change forever?   How will this affect the industry?  All this and much more may be revealed in 2010.

But one thing is certain, what will affect the market more than anything next year will be "Events, dear boy, events".

Date: 6/01/2010

WANTED IN OSWESTRY

Due to a high level of sales in the last few months, we urgently require new stock.

If you are thinking of selling or you are already on the market, and having difficulty in selling

please contact  David Hall or Jane Beaman on Oswestry 01691 659951. For your

Free Market Appraisal

Date: 17/12/2009

Wall to Wall opportunities

Wall-to-Wall Opportunities

Anthony Wood of Samuel Wood & Co surveys the property market landscape and finds that there is some good cheer in the run up to Christmas.

Twenty years ago surprised but elated East and West Berliners rose up as one and broke down the Berlin Wall.  Their action altered the political architecture of Europe.  Sadly it didn't break down the boom and bust financial landscape of the UK.  As we watched the historic events unfold we were just beginning to feel the effects of a deep and damaging recession.  So no change there then.  The Berlin Wall may now be the stuff of history but two decades later we don't seem to have moved on very far in economic terms.

1989 was at the start of a period of harsh economic adjustment.  But despite increasing unemployment and great difficulties in the financial and industrial sectors the property market was one of the first areas to show improvement.  As we move towards 2010 there are distinct parallels to the market behaviour all those years ago.

We do not know any more now than we did then about how long the market will take to get back to good health - one spokesman from a national estate agency chain has recently gone on record to say that over the next couple of years prices could go down or they could stay the same or they could rise.  It is this sort of vacuous comment from someone who should really know better that serves to underline the fact that no one can predict the future in property. But we do have history to help guide us.

It was during the period that we spent climbing out of the economic mire in the early '90s that many people laid the foundations for their financial well being over the next twenty years - apart from a blip at the end of that decade!  Then, as now, there were great opportunities in the market for asset growth.

But today we have the added advantage of low mortgage interest rates.  The banks may not be falling over themselves to make so many home loans but mortgage availability is slowly getting better and this may be the last time for many years that there are real chances to find a wonderful home without the serious buyer competition that goes with a market in fast-forward.

This is a market when astute buyers will make some good money as well as find a good home.  Equally there will be those who don't take this chance and come to regret that choice.   So be like Germany twenty years ago.  Grab the chance while it's there.  For some, like those Berliners, it will be a once in a lifetime opportunity.  



Date: 3/12/2009

The Balloon Goes Up

Anthony Wood of Samuel Wood & Co looks into the options presented by the property market this autumn.

In the same month that a helium balloon in Colorado made its famous flight - without its supposed young passenger - the balloon also went up in the UK regarding mortgage lending, not that this generated quite so much global publicity. The news that the Financial Services Authority was to hold banks and other mortgage lenders responsible for their conduct in providing funds for house buyers was, however, met at the same time with both partial agreement and sharp criticism.

Some were pleased that no one would now be able to borrow beyond their means.  Others were anxious that this would be yet another factor to help stall the market ? along with VAT going up, the Stamp Duty holiday coming to an end, the general election next year and a new taste for austerity that might deter buyers from moving up market.

Some commentators predicted that the market would go into the dreaded double dip and there were even those that predicted Armageddon ? especially, like the builders of the Colorado balloon, those that wanted to seek some extra publicity for themselves.

The reality will probably be less headline-making.  All the above factors may have a slowing effect on the market.  There may be less choice and this could keep prices artificially high.  But even the most pessimistic headline grabber must agree that the market shouldn?t return to its position of last year.  The factor that the doomsayers always seem to neglect is human nature.  We are an ambitious species and those in our islands are an ambitious people.  We like to better ourselves.  We like to invest for the future and, if possible, for our children?s future.

As for the FSA, not to agree that some sort of onus should be put on the banks to lend in a responsible manner rather suggests that they should act irresponsibly.  It was irresponsible banks with irresponsible lending policies that partly got us into all this financial mess in the first place.  As the banks seem to have forgotten how to demonstrate fiscal responsibility it must surely then be up to others to ensure they do.

Banks and building societies telling us what we could and couldn?t borrow served us well for hundreds of years before the customers? financial wellbeing was overtaken by greed.  That we return to those days of responsible banks and lending should be a comforting frustration for most house buyers, even if it does mean some may have to save a little longer and the steam will be taken out of the market for a while.

But the problem with this new regulation is that it may well go too far.  It will make it harder for the self-employed to obtain a mortgage without established proof of earnings.  This is unhelpful at a time when we should surely be encouraging brave new initiatives and entrepreneurs. Those with self-certification mortgages - which made up 10% of all mortgages agreed in 2007 ? will find it harder to re-mortgage when their fixed terms come to an end.  Perhaps just as importantly first time buyers will certainly have to jump through a great many more hoops to buy a property than those who bought over the past twenty years.  Cold comfort that their parents may well have experienced the same difficulties, but they at least have had the advantage of seeing their bricks and mortar assets accumulate at an extraordinary rate ? albeit with a couple of glitches on the way.

We are entering a new era of mortgage lending.  It will take a while for things to settle down but one thing does seem certain: for those with the funds and the ambition investing in property is still one of the soundest investments we will make for ourselves and our families, and that is worth getting the balloons out for.

Date: 2/11/2009

A Riddle Wrapped In a Mystery Inside An Enigma

A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma

Anthony Wood of Samuel Wood & Co looks into the puzzling state of the property market this autumn and finds that, despite the conflicting signs, there is reason to be very optimistic.

What exactly is happening to the property market at the moment?  In many parts of the UK August has been one of the most active on record and this following a rather busy July.  So, after the dark and dreadful credit crunch months, what on earth is going on?  After all the 'property experts' seem to think that the market could take years to pick up again.

This underlines the fact that nobody can really be a true expert forecaster in property.  We can expertly deal with the market we are in, and skilfully help buyers and sellers to make the best of the prevailing conditions.  But to try and out-guess the property market is an entirely different proposition.

So if we aren't going to be foolish enough to try to foretell the future, at least we can try to understand the present.  What the gurus couldn't factor in was the behaviour of the British house buyer and seller.  Neither group is silly.  Homeowners understand that there is a strong chance the market has hit the bottom and now the only way is up.  So the longer they wait the more they may get for their property.  Buyers, on the other hand, are keen to buy now as they anticipate that this is the perfect time to purchase.  Indeed, latest figures show that residential property is now at its most affordable for thirteen years.

The recent property activity is a riddle, and the mystery of where things will go next does lie within the enigma that is the market.  But one thing we do know: those astute buyers and sellers do understand a thing or two about supply and demand.  Reluctant sellers mean a dearth of property coming onto the market and that, in turn, is stimulating a level of activity that is now causing competition between many buyers.  Hence the recent surge in property activity.  In some areas this means multiple offers and even rising prices.

So, what a great position to be in.  Don't sell and you will make money.  Buy now and you will make money.  It's win-win and that is a concept that should be no riddle, mystery or enigma to anyone.

Date: 2/09/2009

A Giant Leap

A Giant Leap

On the 40th Anniversary of the moon landing Anthony Wood of Samuel Wood & Co thinks that taking a "Giant Leap" in today's property market may be a very good step indeed.

Forty years ago three brave men risked their lives to make a giant leap for mankind.  The Apollo X1 mission to put a man on the moon, and go where no man had gone before, held the planet in thrall. It was the end of the '60s and Britain had swung for almost a decade.  But, as a counterpoint to the successful moon landing, back on earth the wheels were coming off.  The decade-long free spending party had come to an end.

So, no change there then - particularly as none of us really knows now what is going to happen next, any more than we did in the early '70s.  But life and economics appear to have come full circle.

The property market is certainly going where it has never gone before.  We are in un-chartered territory with the market very finely balanced indeed.  On one hand it could remain on its present - albeit shallow - upward trajectory.  On the other we could experience the double bounce or 'W' shaped recession, about which some economists and media commentators seem keen to remind us.

From a property market point of view there seems little doubt that although there is a large question mark hanging over where the market may go next, either way, now seems a good time for home movers.  If the recovery continues, the rate of increase in property values should ultimately rise.  So now would be a very good time to buy.  Were the market to slip back and values slide then it would be a smart move to sell.  Moving home always features profit and loss - the financial advantage of selling almost always cancels out the disadvantage of buying, or vice versa depending on the market.

The first six months of this year have defied most market predictions.  Activity has been high, and in some places demand has even exceeded supply.  That was not in the script, but is a welcome sign of tentative market recovery.  So too is the news from the house builders that they are seeing their best sales results in three years.

Buying property in this market may seem to some like a giant leap into the unknown: not quite like risking one's life and flying to the moon for the first time, but a bold step nevertheless.  However, when weighed against some of the good signs of recovery then the bold move now may very well prove to be the shrewd one.

Date: 6/08/2009

Can a swallow make a summer

Can A Swallow Make A Summer

Anthony Wood of Samuel Wood & Co looks back over an encouraging springtide in the property market.

All over the UK the swallows have returned to liven up our skies and line our overhead cables.  At first there were just one or two, then they arrived in their hundreds and then thousands.  They are a most welcome sight after a miserable winter.

In the first months of this year we in the property world were also eagerly looking out for other harbingers ? house buyers.  After such a dreadful year for the housing market as well as the economy generally in 2008, any sign of increased activity was keenly anticipated.

Initially buyers arrived at our Shropshire offices in very small numbers but as April and May unrolled the numbers grew from a trickle to a steady flow. One buyer certainly doesn?t make a market recovery, but as the weeks have passed there have been sure signs that things are really warming up.

It is also encouraging that this new activity is being played across the entire property spectrum - spurred on by some exceptional opportunities for homebuyers and property investors alike.  With interest rates at their lowest level ever, poor returns on other forms of investments and a market that is reaching the bottom of its cycle - if it hasn?t reached it already - there is a fresh sense of urgency.

Up to now most of the vanguard buyers have been cash purchasers, and while the banks and other lenders sort themselves out over the coming months these will form by far the largest group of buyers.  But as the year wears on more mortgage money will become available and, although we may see the traditional market slowdown over the holiday months, I think we can safely predict, for this year at least, that while one swallow may not make a summer a few of them have certainly made for a very encouraging spring.

Date: 30/05/2009